Nigeria 'broke', and Buhari using mega fines on MTN, banks to raise money? Analysts think so – and that worries them

President yet to disclose the portfolios of his 36 cabinet approved by Senate. Africa’s largest economy hasn’t had a cabinet for five months now.

NIGERIA is tightening rules against investors in a move analysts say is evidence of a government struggling to cope with fiscal pressures in the face of plunging oil prices, creating more unpredictability for Africa’s biggest economy.

MTN Group Ltd. was fined $5.2 billion by Nigeria’s telecommunications regulator last week, more than 20% of the mobile-phone company’s market value, for failing to comply with an order to disconnect customers with unregistered phone cards.

In the same week, regulators also imposed big fines on Standard Bank Group Ltd.’s Nigerian unit, United Bank for Africa Plc and First Bank of Nigeria Ltd.

“It’s worrying, the bank fines, the telecommunication fines,” Clement Nwankwo, executive director of the Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre, said by phone on Monday from Abuja, the capital. “I don’t get the sense what the economic direction is. If Nigeria is broke and agencies are fining companies to make up for the shortfall in oil revenues then that is something that we should be worried about.”

Nigeria has no finance minister or clear economic policy five months after President Muhammadu Buhari took office on pledges to combat corruption, end an insurgency by Boko Haram militants and bolster the economy.

He has had to do that with dwindling resources after oil prices fell 55% since June last year. Nigeria is Africa’s biggest crude producer, with oil making up more than two-thirds of government income.

MTN slump

“The fiscal headwinds facing Nigeria has resulted in an increasingly assertive regulatory regime in Nigeria,” Martyn Davies, managing director of emerging markets and Africa at Deloitte & Touche in Johannesburg, said in an e-mailed reply to questions. “These fiscal pressures are resulting in greater pressure on companies, local but particularly multinational, to comply.”

MTN shares have slumped 22% since Oct. 26, when the company said it’s facing a fine. Trading in the stock was halted temporarily in Johannesburg on Monday after earlier dropping as much as 9.7%. It resumed after the company published a statement confirming it’s still in talks with the Nigerian Communications Commission on resolving the matter.

Tony Ojobo, a spokesman for the NCC, said on Oct. 29 that investors are required to comply with the rules or face penalties. He said on Monday that there’s no update to be disclosed on the MTN fine.

Femi Adesina, a spokesman for Buhari, said by phone the MTN penalty is not a matter for the Nigerian presidency, referring queries to the NCC.

The penalties signal “that the new government is serious about compliance, which, over the medium term, should be beneficial for business,” Cobus de Hart, an analyst at NKC Independent Economists, said by phone from Paarl, near Cape Town. “However, given the understandably fickle investor sentiment currently in the country, being too strict too quickly will adversely affect the business environment and investors may become even more anxious.”

Investor confidence has slowly eroded this year. In September, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it will remove Nigeria from its emerging-market bond indexes, as foreign-exchange restrictions imposed by the central bank to help stabilize the naira and reserves caused liquidity to dry up. Buhari has backed the central bank’s currency controls even though it’s hurting importers and growth in an economy that expanded at its slowest pace this decade, at 2.4%, in the second quarter.

Buhari is yet to disclose the portfolios of his 36 cabinet nominees, who were all approved by the Senate last week during confirmation hearings.

“Certainly it is important that the regulatory agencies are active and taking action against companies that violate the rules of business,” Nwankwo said. “But it is always useful that this be done in the context of a national economic policy.”


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